Trump’s musings on ‘very giant faucet’ in Canada a part of looming water disaster, say researchers

Water sharing between Canada and the US has lengthy been a contentious difficulty. 

In 2005, former Alberta premier Peter Lougheed warned towards sharing Canada’s water provide with the US, suggesting Alberta’s most vital useful resource was water, not oil and gasoline.

“We must always talk to the US in a short time how agency we’re about it,” Lougheed mentioned.

Lougheed’s concern did not emerge in a vacuum. It got here within the context of a protracted historical past of water-sharing proposals, some extra radical than others. 

Take the North American Water and Energy Alliance (NAWAPA), a large, deserted engineering megaproject that aimed to “replumb” the continent, diverting water from rivers in Alaska by means of Canada to the US in northern Montana by means of the Rocky Mountain Trench.

These proposals come and go, even when some researchers see NAWAPA as one thing of a “zombie” challenge, at all times resurfacing, by no means useless. The precise historical past of water-sharing between the U.S. and Canada has been a lot much less dramatic — orderly and bureaucratic, managed by means of establishments, boards and treaties.

So when Donald Trump, because the Republican presidential nominee, made feedback in September 2024 about there being a “very giant faucet” that may very well be turned on to empty water from Canada to assist with American water shortages, the ears of Canadian hydrologists perked up.

“There is a little bit of an inflammatory nature to it,” mentioned Prof. Tricia Stadnyk, a Canada Analysis Chair in hydrologic modelling with the College of Calgary’s Schulich College of Engineering.

“Nevertheless, I believe there is a demonstrated historical past of him being … perhaps the fitting phrase is ” over Canada’s water.”

For water consultants, there’s fear that local weather change and shifting U.S. insurance policies might put strain on long-standing cross-border water agreements.

And century-old infrastructure is not serving to issues.

Take, as an illustration, failed siphons in Montana, the place water is diverted from the St. Mary River by means of northern Montana and throughout southern Alberta, supplying important water for some Canadian agricultural operators and an Alberta neighborhood close to the border. Repairs on these siphons at the moment are dealing with a U.S. federal funding pause underneath an government order.

John Pomeroy, a College of Saskatchewan water scientist, mentioned he is very involved about the place this difficulty is heading for 3 causes.

First, water administration regimes in North America are usually not fulfilling the necessities they want for sustainable water provide and administration for ecosystems and other people, he mentioned.

“Second, speedy local weather change, which is bringing higher extremes of drought and floods and lack of snow and glaciers in excessive mountains, is altering the fundamental calculus on which we base our water administration,” Pomeroy mentioned. 

“Third, the thought of battle, that one nation can take one other nation’s water sources and divert arbitrarily for its personal means.…

“We’re breaking down a century of co-operation to resolve these issues. When these three come collectively, then you’ll be able to see the substances for a continental catastrophe.”

Turning on the faucets

The problem has at all times represented a political, financial and environmental problem, mentioned Peter Gleick, a local weather scientist and co-founder of the Pacific Institute, a California analysis group that focuses on water.

“The brand new administration has laid down a number of challenges related to U.S.-Canada relationships, tariffs, all kinds of challenges which are a bit weird,” Gleick mentioned.

“As far as I do know, water has not but entered into the dialog on the U.S. facet … however who is aware of what unusual concepts would possibly come out of Washington now that he is again in energy.”

Trump has a “unusual fascination” with water, in Gleick’s view, that goes properly past outsized taps and valves, together with his lengthy fascination with California water politics. 

Within the wake of the current Los Angeles wildfires, Trump blamed California Gov. Gavin Newsom for the blazes’ escalation, telling the American cable information outlet Newsmax that in his first administration, he had “demanded” the governor settle for “the water coming from the north.” 

“From means up in Canada, and you already know, the north. It flows down proper by means of Los Angeles… Huge quantities popping out from the mountains, from the melts,” Trump mentioned in January. “And even with out it, even throughout the summer time, it is a pure movement of water. They’d have had a lot water they would not have identified what to do with it. You’ll have by no means had the fires.”

The concept that water may very well be diverted from Canada all the way down to Los Angeles is technically very costly and could be very troublesome to engineer, Pomeroy mentioned. There’s additionally giant points with invasive species and habitats alongside the best way.

“I believe with Trump, you see these wild speculations, however they mirror a broader appreciation that the U.S. is … in need of water in lots of areas, together with the southwest, and is approaching a water disaster within the southern Nice Plains,” Pomeroy mentioned.

“On the similar time, local weather change is constant to heat up Canada quicker than the remainder of the world. And our summers have gotten drier, and that may impose extreme water administration constraints, simply on managing our personal water sources.”

Turning on a “very giant faucet” is not so easy. And a few, together with Gleick, do not see water being placed on the desk in commerce negotiations. 

There have been tensions simmering for years over water, however joint agreements have lengthy ensured each international locations handle water pretty and keep away from issues, he mentioned.

To make certain, these commissions have their work minimize out for them.

The wild card? That Trump will get it into his head that he actually needs Canadian water, Gleick mentioned.

“Then, it turns into a political difficulty. After which the query is, how is that managed?” he mentioned.

Cross-border co-operation

Alberta has a case research in cross-border water relations ongoing proper now.

Final summer time, two century-old siphons situated east of Glacier Nationwide Park close to the Canada-U.S. border burst. These siphons have been a crucial part of the Milk River Undertaking, which diverts water from the St. Mary River by means of northern Montana and throughout southern Alberta. 

This diversion traces its historical past to the 1909 Boundary Water Treaty between Canada and the US, and underneath it, the U.S. is sure to ship water to Canada. 

Given the pure movement of the Milk River being lowered, the city of Milk River, Alta., located close to the U.S.-Canada border, was pressured to ban all non-essential water use. On the time, the mayor of the small neighborhood known as it a “dry city — actually.”

Restore work on these siphons is ongoing, although lately hit a roadblock because of an “Unleashing American Vitality” government order issued by the Trump administration.

Jennifer Patrick, challenge supervisor of the Milk River Joint Board of Management, mentioned repairs are nonetheless ongoing because of a mortgage from the state of Montana, however federal cash has been frozen because of the government order.

Patrick mentioned she believes the pause is a part of a broad analysis of U.S. authorities spending throughout a number of infrastructure tasks. Different regional water tasks, which offer consuming water to rural areas, are additionally caught up within the overview.

“Our funding is caught up in that, however we’re fairly assured nonetheless that the Division of Inside will put it by means of a overview course of and have a look at how we’re spending the cash,” Patrick mentioned. “It is a good challenge.”

The infrastructure is vital to farmers on either side of the border, and the Alberta authorities says it has been in shut contact with the city of Milk River, water co-ops and agricultural operators to assist help them in any means attainable.

Throughout a current interview with Alberta Finance Minister Nate Horner on the Calgary Eyeopener, Horner mentioned funding alternatives and strategic benefits that may very well be seized by a brand new Crown company that might oversee coverage for the Heritage Fund, Alberta’s wet day fund. 

“I strive to consider issues which are vital to us going ahead into the approaching many years,” Horner mentioned. 

“I take into consideration … the water challenges within the state south of us, our alternatives with contemporary water, freshwater infrastructure, issues like that.”

His workplace later clarified that water infrastructure will not be an energetic funding coverage. Nevertheless, the newly fashioned, arm’s-length Heritage Fund Alternatives Company might contemplate directing funding in areas of water infrastructure ought to it so select, a spokesperson mentioned.

Nonetheless, the restore will probably be intently watched by Canadians whose livelihoods depend on it. And it is emblematic for some Canadian water researchers concerning the significance of being conscious that ageing infrastructure and shifting local weather pressures might put strain on long-standing treaties.

“None of those treaties are actually immune from being reopened and mentioned underneath these very dynamic occasions, the place water provides are altering because of flood and drought, and in addition that the infrastructure that was put in to handle lots of the diversions or allocations is ageing,” mentioned Stadnyk, the Canada Analysis Chair in hydrologic modelling.

With local weather change making Canada hotter and drier, managing water is turning into much more troublesome. Pomeroy, the College of Saskatchewan water scientist, mentioned as glaciers shrink and water calls for develop, Canada should take a stronger function in monitoring and managing its water, particularly as U.S. strain for entry is not going away — no matter who’s in energy.

“It should be an incredible problem going ahead … we now have to carry agency on water, that Canadian water stays in Canada,” he mentioned.