Russia has revised its oil and gas export revenue projections for the years 2025–27, with expected earnings for 2025 now set at $200.3bn (Rbs16.56trn), a 15% decrease compared with the previous year and earlier forecasts, reported Reuters, citing sources.
This adjustment indicates a potential strain on the nation’s budget, which is already burdened by substantial defence spending due to the conflict in Ukraine.
The Russian Government’s updated estimates show a decrease in expected revenues for the coming years, with $220.4bn in 2026, $231bn in 2027 and a slight increase to $244.1bn in 2028.
These figures represent a 4% and 1.1% reduction, followed by a 2.6% rise from previous projections.
US President Donald Trump suggested earlier this year that lower oil prices might contribute to ending the conflict in Ukraine.
Oil and gas sales are crucial for Russia, comprising roughly one-third of the state budget income.
The Economy Ministry had already reduced its 2025 oil price forecast by nearly 17%, and the Russian central bank cautioned earlier in April about the potential for prolonged oil price weakness, the report said.
In April, Urals oil prices dropped to their lowest mark since 2023, around $53 per barrel (bbl), and remained below $60/bbl last week.
Additionally, the ministry has lowered its 2025 oil production forecast to 516 million tonnes (mt), which is unchanged from the previous year and down from an earlier prediction of 518.6mt.
Pipeline gas exports from Russia, which plummeted after the 2022 invasion of Ukraine, are expected to rebound to 89.1 billion cubic metres (bcm) in 2025, up from 80.6bcm in 2024 and 69.3bcm in 2023.
Meanwhile, the European Commission is considering legislation to prevent EU companies from signing new contracts for Russian fossil fuels.
The Commission is also exploring legal options to enable EU companies to terminate existing gas supply contracts with Russia without incurring penalties.
In an effort to reduce Europe’s dependence on Russian energy, the Commission is developing a “roadmap” to be presented on 6 May, which may include trade measures to forbid new contracts for Russian fuel.
The Commission’s strategy aims to impact Moscow more severely than the EU, considering the effects on Europe’s energy security and fuel prices.
Following the road map’s release, the Commission will consult with EU member states and companies before potentially proposing legislation that would require approval from the European Parliament and a reinforced majority of EU countries.
