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A nail-biting recount is under way in the Runcorn & Helsby by-election in north-west England after thousands of voters swung behind Nigel Farage’s Reform UK, threatening to topple Labour in what has long been a party stronghold.
The recount was ordered after the most knife-edge by-election result in British political history, with Reform saying it had emerged four votes ahead of Labour.
Labour held the seat in last July’s general election with a majority of almost 15,000 votes.
Both Labour and the Tories have been braced for a painful set of local elections and mayoralty contests across England that look set to provide a snapshot of public dissatisfaction with the two main parties.
Early results suggested a big swing towards Reform with its candidate in Greater Lincolnshire, former Tory MP Andrea Jenkyns, winning easily.
Reform also came close to toppling Labour in the mayoralty race in North Tyneside in north-east England. Karen Clark won that battle with 30.2 per cent, a whisker ahead of Reform’s 29.4 per cent.
Labour’s support in North Tyneside plunged 23 percentage points compared to 2021 when the party had won 53 per cent of the vote in the region. The Conservatives dropped 11 points to 21 per cent.
Richard Tice, deputy leader of Reform, said the early results were “very, very encouraging” for his party and suggested a “seismic shift” in voting patterns.
“So far I think we have taken more seats from Labour than from the Conservatives,” he told Sky News. “It’s fascinating that we’re taking so many votes from Labour in its heartlands.”
The near photo-finish in Runcorn in Cheshire will send shudders through Labour, which has endured a plunge in its popularity since winning a House of Commons landslide last summer.
The Runcorn seat was held by former Labour MP Mike Amesbury last year with a majority of 14,696. His conviction for assault triggered the by-election.
Reform candidate Sarah Pochin campaigned heavily on an anti-immigration ticket that targeted a local asylum hotel, and capitalised on local anger about the government’s welfare cuts.
Turnout in the seat was 46.3 per cent, which is relatively high for a by-election.
Labour sought to emphasise the government’s funding for the NHS and its package of employment reforms, while trying to encourage supporters of other parties to vote tactically against Reform.
“These elections were always going to be a challenge,” said Ellie Reeves, the Labour party chair. “We know people aren’t yet fully feeling the benefit and we are just as impatient for change as the rest of the country.”
Reform UK is currently running ahead in British opinion polls on an average of 26 per cent, just a whisker ahead of Labour on 24 per cent with the Conservatives trailing on 21 per cent, according to a Politico poll of polls.
Labour strategists fear that Reform could capture large parts of its former heartlands in northern England and the Midlands at the next general election.
In a sign of Labour’s low expectations for the by-election, prime minister Sir Keir Starmer did not visit the constituency in the run-up to polling day.
Results due later on Friday are also expected to pose a headache for Kemi Badenoch, the Conservative leader, with her party expected to lose hundreds of seats.
The Tories are facing a threat from both Reform and the centre-left Liberal Democrats, who hope for gains in southern councils.
This set of English councils was last contested when former premier Boris Johnson was enjoying heightened popularity thanks to a “vaccine bounce” during the Covid pandemic.
The Conservatives’ shadow housing secretary Kevin Hollinrake said: “If we lost half our seats, which I think we probably will do, it’s going to be a bad night for us.”
