2 different Wall Street strategists make same Forrest Gump reference explaining market’s tariff response

Investor confusion amid tariff whipsaw has brought at least two Wall Street strategists to the same place: the Oscar-winning 1994 film Forrest Gump.

“As Forrest Gump might have said, ‘Tariffs are like a box of chocolates, you never know what you’re gonna get,” Yardeni Research president Ed Yardeni wrote in a note to clients on Sunday night.

In her own note published Sunday, RBC Capital Markets head of US equity strategy Lori Calvasina also referenced the film’s famous line, writing that the upcoming first quarter earnings season “seems a little bit like a box of (potentially bittersweet) chocolates to us — we aren’t sure what we’re going to get.”

The tariff headlines have been fast and furious since Donald Trump announced a wide span of reciprocal duties on April 2.

The initial announcement prompted the worst week for the S&P 500 (^GSPC) since 2020. Then, on April 9, Trump announced a 90-day pause on the tariffs, sending the S&P 500 up more than 9% for its best day since 2008.

Shifting headlines on China tariffs have been a mainstay of the market conversation in the days since Trump’s “Liberation Day,” with the overall reciprocal rate on imports from China standing at 145%, well above what many initially expected.

Reporting this weekend suggested products such as smartphones, laptop computers, hard drives, computer processors, and memory chips would not be subject to the tariffs, providing a potential boost to tech giants Apple (AAPL) and Nvidia (NVDA).

But on Sunday, Trump pushed back against some of this reporting, saying there was no tariff exemption announced on Friday.

Still, Wedbush analyst Dan Ives said in a note to clients on Sunday that Apple and other Big Tech companies are “in a much better spot” after the recent tariff news flow, though the industry likely isn’t out of the woods yet.

“The mass confusion created by this constant news flow out of the White House is dizzying for the industry and investors and creating massive uncertainty and chaos for companies trying to plan their supply chain, inventory, and demand,” Ives wrote.

Other strategists also expect the market’s seesaws likely won’t end until investors and companies can stop guessing what chocolate Trump pulls out out of his tariff box next.

A team of JPMorgan strategists led by head of global equity strategy Mislav Matejka wrote in a note on Monday that they’d likely be buyers of equities later in 2025 but that they’d first like to “see [tariff] newsflow settle.”